AZ Weekly Post
Great Britain has ample gas and electricity supplies to navigate the winter months, according to fresh analysis, despite growing reliance on international imports squeezed by the war in Iran . Europe is also approaching winter with lower gas reserves than usual following elevated prices. However, the National Energy System Operator (Neso) stated its latest assessment demonstrates that Britain 's electricity network will remain stable throughout the season.
As a publicly-owned organisation independent of government, Neso is responsible for balancing power supplies with consumer demand to prevent potential blackouts. Its extensive modelling — testing thousands of scenarios covering generation, weather, and energy usage — indicates that "tight days" could still occur, most likely during December or January. These pressure points typically happen on cold, still, and overcast days when heating demands spike while solar and wind generation drop.
The US-Israel’s war with Iran has led to disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG prior to the conflict (Reuters) On these days, Neso said it may need to use tools such as system notices, which signal to the energy market to bring in additional power generation to increase capacity in the grid. Deborah Petterson, director of whole energy system resilience at Neso, said: “Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in global energy markets, Britain enters this winter with a resilient and well-prepared electricity system.” National Gas separately published its winter outlook on Friday showing that Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply capability to meet demand this winter, even under its worst-case scenarios. But the body, which is responsible for transporting gas across the country, said domestic gas production from the UK continental shelf is forecast to decline by around 5%, in line with a long-term downward trend.
This is offset by an expected increase in imports of liquified natural gas (LNG) by around 6%, which it said highlights Britain’s growing dependence on global gas supplies. The US-Israel’s war with Iran has led to disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz , which carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG prior to the conflict. Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply capability to meet demand this winter, even under its worst-case scenarios (PA) This has led to increased competition for alternative supplies which has pushed up prices around the world.
It also meant European gas storage filled more slowly over the summer as the volatility pushed summer prices above winter prices, meaning storage levels have been below the target level. Nevertheless, Britain gets the majority of LNG shipments from the Americas while it also gets energy supplies from the North Sea and renewable sources. Energy regulator Ofgem said on Thursday that it had approved an agreement to maintain gas links between Great Britain and Belgium amid a “significant reduction” in the amount of gas that can be imported through the undersea pipelines.
Furthermore, the government’s approval of drilling in the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea is expected to result in increased gas production over the winter. The main impact of the war for households is therefore felt in prices, with Ofgem’s price cap on energy bills rising from October and prices expected to go up further from January. Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “The analysis continues to demonstrate the critical role that gas, and the gas network, plays in safeguarding our country’s energy security.
“As Britain’s electricity system becomes increasingly reliant on weather-dependent renewable generation, the flexibility and reliability provided by gas remains critical to maintaining energy security and keeping the lights on when renewable output is low.”
Source: The Independent
